At 26.5%, Nigeria's CBN Is on the Brake. Who Is on the Accelerator?
How Taylor, McCallum, two strategic straits and one very Nigerian monetary-policy problem tell us whether the CBN's 26.5% MPR is actually tight.
Read research →Research · Reports · Notes · Essays
Arguments sorted by the work they do.
Reports underwrite companies. Notes update an argument. Essays examine markets, institutions and power. Geography is a filter, not a separate corridor.
29 published pieces
NGX Group: The Lady Selling Shovels
Dangote’s refinery IPO has arrived, FTSE Frontier re-entry is a week away and NGX Group closed at ₦149.90. The franchise is getting better. The uncomfortable part is that the price has now moved into our bull case.
Read research →Dangote Refinery IPO: Three Valuations Before Shift Change
The prospectus confirms an exceptional refinery. At ₦525, the IPO also asks investors to underwrite rich refining margins, high uptime and a $14.3bn expansion with little room for error.
Read research →Zenith Bank 2026: The Red Tie Has to Earn Its Keep
Zenith has solved the recapitalisation problem. At roughly book value, the enlarged equity base now has to restore per-share compounding.
Read research →FCMB: The ₦14 Share
In 2007 Nigerians paid ₦14 for FCMB. Nineteen years, two bonus issues, a banking crisis and billions of new shares later, it trades at ₦11.90. The old shareholder bought the dream expensively. The new shareholder may be buying the disappointment cheaply.
Read research →The Republic of 30%
Ponzi, Nigeria and the Eternal Return of the Beautiful Lie, 1914–2026
Read research →Uber Nigeria: The Cheapest Drivers Were Still Too Expensive
Uber left Lagos on the same day it cut 3,300 employees. Months earlier it had committed more than $10 billion to autonomous vehicles. Not the same event. The same capital-allocation problem.
Read research →NAHCO: The Bags Still Have to Move
Nigerian Aviation Handling Company has built a formidable franchise around the minutes between landing and take-off. The business is attractive. At ₦138.50, the security is closer to interesting than cheap.
Read research →Nigeria GDP Growth 2026: Why 4.43% Is Not Enough to Lift Nigerians Out of Poverty
Nigeria’s economy is growing again, but is 4.43% enough? A 47-year view of GDP per person, poverty, productive jobs and the reforms needed for lasting prosperity.
Read research →PZ Nigeria: The Soap Has Stopped Slipping
PZ Cussons Nigeria has repaired its balance sheet, restored dividends and returned to growth. Yet most of FY2026's spectacular profit came from asset disposals and currency gains. We separate the operating recovery from the accounting fireworks, explain the two listings, test the alleged arbitrage and value both shares.
Read research →Project Gazelle: Tomorrow's Oil, Today's Dollars and the Republic of Refinancing
Nigeria has not run out of crude. It has run short of crude that is simultaneously available, unencumbered and economically sensible to sell.
Read research →MTN Nigeria: The Data Is Flying. The Generator Has Sent Its Invoice.
MTN Nigeria H1 2026: earnings, data growth, diesel costs, capex, MoMo, governance and Seven Gates valuation, with seven charts.
Read research →Stanbic IBTC: quality still needs a price
Pre-H1 update: a strong fee franchise, provisional ₦175 fair value and a ₦125–₦135 preferred buying zone. Hold / watch pending audited results.
Read research →Universal Insurance: The Risk That Wasn’t Insured
A rights issue, licence cancellation, suspended shares and a court challenge. Regulatory capital, policyholder risk and an indeterminate shareholder recovery.
Read research →The Data Must Come Home. The Profits May Not.
CBN payment-data localisation: valuations, moats and risks for MTN Nigeria, CWG, Airtel Africa, eTranzact and Chams.
Read research →Aradel: The Little Oil Company Has Acquired an Empire
Seven Gates Research underwrites Aradel after H1 2026: scale, cash flow, finance costs, tax, minorities and valuation.
Read research →Refining Squeeze: The Middle of the Barrel Has Taken Hostages
The refining squeeze of 2026, and why a diesel shortage now reaches from Russian airfields to Nigerian farms, Congolese mines, French supermarkets and Chinese car factories.
Read research →First HoldCo: The Old Bank, the New Money and the Shareholder Waiting Room
First HoldCo's H1 2026 recovery is real. So are the ownership reshuffle, recapitalisation burden and the long memory of its loan book.
Read research →Presco: The Plantation Is Excellent. The Price Has Heard.
Presco is an excellent integrated palm-oil business with a much stronger balance sheet. At ₦2,070, quality is no longer the undiscovered part of the argument.
Read research →Champion Breweries: Beer, Bullet and the Morning After
A Lokoja Contrarian analysis of Champion Breweries, the EnjoyBev and Bullet transformation, competitive landscape, financing, dilution and valuation.
Read research →Dangote Refinery IPO: The Elephant in the Control Room
A buy-side valuation of Dangote Refinery before the prospectus: a magnificent industrial asset, serious single-train risk, and a price that must leave room for what remains unknown.
Read research →GTCO: The Bank That Keeps Its Shirt Buttoned
GTCO is investible, but no longer obviously cheap. A review of its moat, earnings quality, capital, dividend, dilution and valuation.
Read research →HONYFLOUR: Man Must Wack
The contrarian investment case for Honeywell Flour Mills, from Agege bread to cash-flow quality.
Read research →Seplat Energy: Excellent Company, Demanding Price
A concise investor-grade review of Seplat's operating momentum, valuation, dividend and principal risks.
Read research →Tantalizers: The Old Man, the Sea and a Rather Expensive Plate of Jollof
An investor's evaluation of Tantalizers Plc: restaurant recovery, outlet economics, inflation, diversification, dilution and valuation.
Read research →The Naira Is Not a Footnote in Your Valuation
A 60% gain in Lagos can still leave a dollar investor looking like he attended the wrong party.
Read research →UBA: A Fine African Franchise, Carrying More Luggage Than It Admits
UBA investment analysis covering its deposit franchise, African network, asset quality, governance, valuation and staged entry ranges.
Read research →VFD Group: Berkshire Ambition, Lagos Financing
Is VFD a compounding machine or merely a rapidly expanding balance sheet?
Read research →Seplat and the Privilege of Dollar Earnings
A Seplat Energy deep dive covering dollar earnings, MPNU, ANOH, cash flow, capital allocation, governance and risks.
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