The Research Desk
Every argument.
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Company analysis, macro commentary and valuation work. Search by company, ticker, sector or idea.
10 reports
Champion Breweries: Beer, Bullet and the Morning After
The Uyo brewer bought itself a passport. Revenue has doubled, but debt, dilution and finance costs are drinking before ordinary shareholders reach the bar.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 11 minDangote Refinery IPO: The Elephant in the Control Room
A magnificent industrial asset, an enormous single-train concentration, and a minority share whose value depends on debt, uptime, governance and price.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 18 minTantalizers: The Old Man, the Sea and a Rather Expensive Plate of Jollof
The restaurants are recovering, but the market is already paying for tomorrow's prawns, films and possible miracles.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 9 minUBA: A Fine African Franchise, Carrying More Luggage Than It Admits
A formidable deposit franchise and continental reach, offset by weaker asset quality, heavier costs and capital that must still earn its keep.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 8 minSeplat Energy: Excellent Company, Demanding Price
MPNU adds scale, ANOH adds growth and leverage has collapsed. The market has noticed.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 3 minSeplat and the Privilege of Dollar Earnings
The currency hedge is real. So are operating concentration, fiscal terms and the danger of adventurous capital allocation.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 31 Jul 2026 · 14 minVFD Group: Berkshire Ambition, Lagos Financing
Profit has recovered. Per-share compounding, financing drag and the moat still need proving.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · Updated · 7 minGTCO: The Bank That Keeps Its Shirt Buttoned
Cheap deposits, formidable capital and rare institutional restraint. The remaining argument is price.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 8 minHONYFLOUR: Man Must Wack
Demand is dependable. The shareholder economics still need kneading.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 6 minThe Naira Is Not a Footnote in Your Valuation
A handsome gain in Lagos can still leave a dollar investor looking like he attended the wrong party.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 9 min