Banking
GTCO
Guaranty Trust Holding
₦94.6Base value ₦112Upside 18.4%
₦80.2Bear₦112Base₦140Bull
Independent Nigerian equity research
Price is what you pay.
Value is what you model.
Value Nigerian listed companies through earnings quality, DCF, comparable multiples and naira scenarios.
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NGX All Share Index104,256.38
+0.62%+640.71
Market breadth32 advancers15 decliners103 unchanged
Market statusClosedIllustrative delayed data
The daily ledger
What changes the numbers
UPDATED 3 AUG · 07:10 UKRanked for commercial impact. Quality over quantity.
01
Power finance · Punch · 3 Aug · 07:10 UK
↗02Nigeria asks the bond market for another ₦729 billion to pay yesterday’s electricity debts.
Commercial read-through: The issuance can repair power-sector balance sheets and liquidity, but it transfers legacy obligations onto the sovereign curve rather than fixing tariffs, collections or supply
Fiscal reality · Reuters · 3 Aug · 07:10 UK
↗03The subsidy money arrived. Debt service and higher spending were already waiting.
Commercial read-through: Reform savings have not created the expected fiscal room; government borrowing costs and expenditure discipline remain more important than the headline subsidy number
NGX weekly · Nairametrics / NGX · 3 Aug · 07:10 UK
↗The NGX lost 0.8% in the week, after gaining ₦11.1 trillion in July.
Commercial read-through: Profit-taking in banks and industrials is a useful reminder that a 57.6% year-to-date index gain leaves less room for weak earnings, dilution or optimistic stories
Africa
Credit markets
Reuters ↗WorldS&P Global buys control of Nigeria’s Agusto & Co as African credit markets deepen.
The deal validates local ratings infrastructure and may improve distribution and standards, while sharpening the debate over who defines African sovereign and corporate risk
Trump–Iran war
Reuters ↗Oil loses more than 5% as Trump cancels a planned Iran attack. Hormuz is not yet normal.
Brent near $83 eases Nigeria’s petrol, freight and inflation pressure but trims the oil-revenue windfall; negotiations can reverse the move quickly if shipping remains constrained
Research desk
Valuation ideas
Scenario values are illustrative and are not live prices or investment advice.
Energy
SEPLAT
Seplat Energy
₦6,480Base value ₦7,350Upside 13.4%
₦5,300Bear₦7,350Base₦9,650Bull
Industrials
DANGCEM
Dangote Cement
₦595Base value ₦670Upside 12.6%
₦480Bear₦670Base₦860Bull
Market movement
Top price changes
Session leaders by percentage move. Prices are illustrative delayed data.
Top 10 risers
Advancing- 01CAVERTONAviation₦8.42+9.97%
- 02LIVESTOCKAgriculture₦11.55+9.90%
- 03ETERNAEnergy₦58.25+9.89%
- 04REDSTAREXLogistics₦19.45+9.89%
- 05LEARNAFRCAPublishing₦8.13+9.86%
- 06CHAMPIONBrewers₦6.02+9.85%
- 07MECUREHealthcare₦14.38+9.85%
- 08ACADEMYPublishing₦7.25+9.85%
- 09UPDCReal estate₦5.92+9.83%
- 10SOVRENINSInsurance₦3.02+9.82%
Top 10 fallers
Declining- 01OMATEKTechnology₦1.01-9.82%
- 02DAARCOMMMedia₦1.84-9.80%
- 03NEIMETHHealthcare₦4.35-9.75%
- 04RTBRISCOEAutomotive₦7.15-9.72%
- 05HONYFLOURConsumer₦19.7-9.63%
- 06CUTIXIndustrials₦3.02-9.58%
- 07FTNCOCOAAgriculture₦4.08-9.53%
- 08DEAPCAPFinancials₦1.43-9.49%
- 09TANTALIZERHospitality₦2.22-9.39%
- 10JAPAULGOLDMining₦2.61-9.38%
Build your case
A valuation desk, not a price target machine.
Change the assumptions. See what the market already prices in. Keep the narrative and the arithmetic in the same room.
01 Normalise earnings02 Stress the naira03 Demand a margin of safety
Company
Earnings modelCalculated fair value₦101+6.3% vs price
Growth / P·E sensitivityFair value (₦)
8%6490116
12%72101129
16%80112144
Analysis · Commentary · Reports
Research worth arguing with
Latest work appears here. Every published report lives in the searchable archive.
Search the full research library →CHAMPION
Company analysis · CHAMPION
Read →TANTALIZERChampion Breweries: Beer, Bullet and the Morning After
The Uyo brewer bought itself a passport. Revenue has doubled, but debt, dilution and finance costs are drinking before ordinary shareholders reach the bar.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 11 minCompany analysis · TANTALIZER
Read →UBATantalizers: The Old Man, the Sea and a Rather Expensive Plate of Jollof
The restaurants are recovering. The listed company is becoming something stranger, and the market is already pricing the prawns before they reach the jetty.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 9 minCompany analysis · UBA
Read →SEPLATUBA: A Fine African Franchise, Carrying More Luggage Than It Admits
Continental reach and a formidable deposit franchise meet weaker asset quality, heavier costs and capital that must prove its worth.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 8 minCompany analysis · SEPLAT
Read →HONYFLOURSeplat Energy: Excellent Company, Demanding Price
MPNU adds scale, ANOH adds growth and leverage has collapsed. At ₦11,364, the market has noticed.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 3 minCompany analysis · HONYFLOUR
Read →VFDHONYFLOUR: Man Must Wack
Flour sits beneath everything from Agege bread to airborne wedding cakes. The demand is dependable. The shareholder economics still need kneading.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 6 minCompany analysis · VFD
Read →GTCOVFD Group: Berkshire Ambition, Lagos Financing
H1 profit doubled and EPS rose despite the enlarged share base. The recovery is real; the moat and per-share compounding still need proving.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · Updated · 7 minCompany analysis · GTCO
Read →SEPLATGTCO: The Bank That Keeps Its Shirt Buttoned
Cheap deposits, formidable capital and rare institutional restraint. The quality is clear; the question is what remains at ₦130.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 8 minDeep dive · SEPLAT
Read →MacroSeplat and the Privilege of Dollar Earnings
The currency hedge is real. So are operating concentration, fiscal terms and the danger of adventurous capital allocation.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 31 Jul 2026 · 14 minMacro commentary · Macro
Read →The Naira Is Not a Footnote in Your Valuation
A 60% gain in Lagos can still leave a dollar investor looking like he attended the wrong party.
The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 9 minQuality before cheapness
NGX shortlist
Compare valuation, capital returns, balance-sheet resilience and earnings quality.
| Company | Sector | Price | P/E | Yield | ROE | Base value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTCOGuaranty Trust Holding | Banking | ₦94.6 | 5.8× | 8.5% | 37.2% | ₦112 | |
| SEPLATSeplat Energy | Energy | ₦6,480 | 8.7× | 4.1% | 18.6% | ₦7,350 | |
| DANGCEMDangote Cement | Industrials | ₦595 | 12.4× | 5.0% | 31.8% | ₦670 | |
| MTNNMTN Nigeria | Telecoms | ₦517 | 16.1× | 4.6% | n.m. | ₦566 | |
| OKOMUOILOkomu Oil Palm | Agriculture | ₦1,400 | 14.7× | 3.2% | 48.5% | ₦1,560 |
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