At 26.5%, Nigeria's CBN Is on the Brake. Who Is on the Accelerator?
How Taylor, McCallum, two strategic straits and one very Nigerian monetary-policy problem tell us whether the CBN's 26.5% MPR is actually tight.
Read the analysis →Seven Gates Research
Independent research on companies, markets and power.
Nigerian in knowledge, international in scope, sceptical by habit. The argument comes first. The arithmetic gets the final vote.
Market lens / 22 September 2026
What today's news changes
Dangote can remove import logistics without removing crude’s global opportunity cost. Nigeria’s pump price now transmits Brent, the naira and distribution costs more directly into inflation, wages and the January election. Refining capacity is industrial progress, not price insurance.
Read the evidence and implications →Latest research
Explore all research →NGX Group: The Lady Selling Shovels
Dangote’s refinery IPO has arrived, FTSE Frontier re-entry is a week away and NGX Group closed at ₦149.90. The franchise is getting better. The uncomfortable part is that the price has now moved into our bull case.
Read the analysis →Dangote Refinery IPO: Three Valuations Before Shift Change
The prospectus confirms an exceptional refinery. At ₦525, the IPO also asks investors to underwrite rich refining margins, high uptime and a $14.3bn expansion with little room for error.
Read the analysis →The coverage directory
Follow the company. Test the thesis.
Published coverage, with the latest view in each company file. Values inside reports are dated research snapshots, never live quotes.
Seplat Energy
Dollar earnings, additional scale and lower leverage improve the franchise. Valuation and capital allocation still matter.
Research as of Open company file →Guaranty Trust Holding Company
Cheap deposits, formidable capital and rare institutional restraint. The remaining argument is price.
Research as of Open company file →VFD Group
Profit has recovered. Per-share compounding, financing drag and the moat still need proving.
Research as of Open company file →United Bank for Africa
A formidable deposit franchise and continental reach, offset by asset-quality, cost and capital-efficiency questions.
Research as of Open company file →MTN Nigeria
Data demand and a repaired balance sheet support the case. Energy costs and capex decide how much growth reaches shareholders.
Research as of Open company file →The NGX Valuation Lab
Bring your own assumptions.
What has to go right for the price to make sense? Change the inputs and see what happens to value.
Open the Valuation Lab →01Discounted cash flow
Growth, reinvestment and the cost of capital.
02Bear, base & bull
Compare the cases behind your conviction.
03Margin of safety
How much room is there to be wrong?
Recent briefings
View archive →Hormuz is dark, not empty
Visible Hormuz traffic collapses while physical oil flows persist; Europe’s jet-fuel deficit recruits Nigeria, Washington and Beijing design an AI alarm, China questions robot revenue, and Vietnam’s index upgrade rewards market plumbing.
Read brief →Saudi Arabia is writing its own insurance policy
Turkey offers military support under a new three-country pact; 37 die in Nigerian custody, China holds rates as weak demand meets AI supply, Gemini crosses test boundaries, and Europe counts AI's modest prize.
Read brief →China has found the price of distance
Beijing presses Iran as Red Sea risk reaches China's energy bill; physical oil splits from the benchmark, investors pull money, Airtel Money reportedly resets its IPO, Volkswagen takes a €10 billion hit, and a court puts a human signature back on AI.
Read brief →The seven gates
Judgement before ornament.
Every company passes through the same seven gates before it earns a view.
- Ownership and governance
- Business economics
- Financial integrity
- Capital allocation
- Competitive endurance
- Valuation and expected return
- Downside, catalysts and portfolio fitThe keystone
House rule
Interesting first. Correct always.
Strong opinions, loosely held. Capital, tightly held.
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