At ₦11,364 / 576p, Seplat is no longer a neglected asset story. It is an execution story.
H1 2026 operating evidence
Scale has improved, while the balance sheet has strengthened.
Production recovery
Quarterly average production, kboepd.
Seplat is now Nigeria’s strongest listed dollar-earning energy business, but the shares have risen 96% year to date and sit near their 52-week high. MPNU brings scale, export infrastructure and restoration upside; ANOH adds domestic gas growth. More importantly, management used elevated oil cash flows to repay debt rather than acquire another shiny object.
The planned $0.683 dividend implies roughly a 9% headline yield, although $0.233 is transaction-funded and should not be mistaken for recurring income.
Valuation range
Scenario values versus the 2 August 2026 reference price.
What breaks the thesis
Lower oil prices, ageing offshore infrastructure, pipeline outages, Nigerian fiscal intervention, NNPC receivables and expensive capital allocation under new leadership. H1 free cash flow also benefits from capital expenditure being weighted toward the second half.
Verdict: hold rather than chase. Accumulate below 500p / ₦9,900, where recurring dividends and cash yield provide a better margin of safety.
Seplat is an excellent company. It may remain an excellent investment over several years. But even the finest racehorse can start to look expensive when the whole crowd at the track is cheering its every stride.